Baseball – The Bat Flip

NL East Preview

The National League East only had one representative in the playoffs last season, but plenty has changed since then. It’s not unrealistic to think this division could send three teams to the postseason in 2019.

Atlanta Braves

2018 National League Rookie of the Year Ronald Acuña, Jr. of the Braves

2018 Record: 90-72; 1st NL East

Postseason: Lost in the NLDS to the Dodgers, 3-1

Say hello to: Josh Donaldson, 3B; Brian McCann, C

So long to: Anibal Sanchez, P; Kurt Suzuki, C

2019 Forecast:Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Ronald Acuña, Jr. will see if he can continue the magic of his 2018 season, which he finished with a .917 OPS and 26 homeruns in just 111 games. Acuña has hit cleanup for much of spring training and is expected to hit there permanently this sason. With Acuña now at cleanup, centerfielder Ender Inciarte has moved into the leadoff role. Veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson looks to hit in the 2-spot. Donaldson was plagued by injuries last season, but seemed back to his old stuff when he was finally healthy in September and playing for the Indians. Hitting third will be Freddie Freeman, who remains one of the best first basemen in the league. Nick Markakis re-signed with the Braves in free agency following a solid 2018 season. Those guys make for a formidable 1-5 in the Braves lineup. If Acuña can come close to replicating his rookie season, the Braves will be in contention again.

Look out for: It’ll be interesting to see how Acuna handles the cleanup role and how that changes the complexion of the lineup. Inciarte is a good choice to lead off—he had a career-high 28 stolen bases last season.

Miami Marlins

2018 record: 63-98; 5^th NL East

Postseason: Did not qualify

Say hello to: Jorge Alfaro, C; Neil Walker, 2B/1B; Curtis Granderson, OF; Sergio Romo, RP;

So long to: J.T. Realmuto, C; Justin Bour, 1B; Derek Dietrich, LF

2019 Forecast: *Insert scream emoji* It seems the tear down and rebuild plan of Derek Jeter’s is finally complete. Following the Marlins fire sale in the 2017 offseason, which saw them move 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Dee Gordon, they used the 2018 offseason to trade one of the best catchers in the league to a division opponent. Any fans that stick around after that deserve a gift basket of autographed Jeter swag. As for those who still remain on the team, Brian Anderson had a surprisingly strong rookie campaign for the Marlins in 2018 and proved he was strong defensively at both third base and in right field. Centerfielder Lewis Brinson has raw talent, but has been unable to put it all together at the major league level. Both Anderson and Brinson have played well in spring training and time will tell if that carries over into the regular season. The Marlins got catcher Jorge Alfaro in the Realmuto trade. Alfaro is a great defensive catcher and still young, but he strikes out an awful lot. The Marlins acquired veterans Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson in the offseason. No word yet on whether or not Walker believes he got justice. The Marlins still have a long way to go to be competitive, especially in a division with three pretty good teams at the top. At least they have new uniforms.

Look out for: Brinson has the talent to be really good. He’ll be given plenty of time to figure it out with the Marlins. If he has a breakout year, that could signal the Marlins are at least beginning the long road to recovery.

New York Mets

Noah Syndergaard. That look on his face is what happens when he remembers he’s a Met. (Photo by Arturo Pardavila III/license)

2018 record: 77-85; 4^th NL East

Postseason: Did not qualify

Say hello to: Robinson Cano, 2B; Wilson Ramos, C; Edwin Diaz, RP; Jed Lowrie, 3B; Justin Wilson, RP

So long to: Wilmer Flores, 3B; Jay Bruce, RF; Jose Reyes, IF

2019 forecast: Despite the team being a perennial punchline, the Mets’ rotation is among the best in the league when healthy, featuring 2018 NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz. The Mets signed deGrom to a 5-year, $137.5 million extension earlier this week, which is fully deserved—especially considering the Mets couldn’t get deGrom a win for nearly two months last season (and another example of why the win stat for pitchers is hot garbage). The Mets traded for Cano, who spent half of his final season with the Mariners suspended for a PED violation; however, Cano had an fWAR of 2.9 in just 80 games last year. They also added catcher Wilson Ramos. Cano, Ramos and returning right fielder Michael Conforto will be strong 3, 4, and 5 hitters, respectively. The Mets may still struggle to gain ground in a tough NL East, but they could be slightly better than last year. They wouldn’t be the Mets without some dysfunction, though. Yoenis Cespedes is still hurt. Syndergaard is annoyed with management’s decision to make the Mets go to Syracuse for one workout before heading to Washington for Opening Day. Brandon Nimmo can’t cook chicken properly. The Mets threw their insane three-GM model out the window during the offseason and hired just one man to be GM. Because they’re the Mets, they hired high-profile agent Brodie van Wagenen, who has represented deGrom, Cespedes, and minor leaguer Tim Tebow, so one can see the conflict of interest that is present in van Wagenen taking the job. Who wants to bet Tebow sees the majors this year? Perhaps last year was rock bottom for the Mets: their three GMs couldn’t get on the same page; they suffered the worst loss in franchise history; they batted out of order; and Syndergaard contracted hand, foot, and mouth disease, which most people didn’t even know was a real thing. It’s hard to predict what will go down in Queens this year; the Mets are nothing if not unpredictable.

Look out for: deGrom has been a great pitcher for quite some time, but he took it to a whole new level last year. It will be interesting to see if he can continue pitching as impressively into 2019. Conforto had a decent season last year and hit a career-high 28 homers, but his other numbers fell from the previous season. The Mets are certainly banking on the young rightfielder returning to his 2017 form.

Washington Nationals

Nationals’ Third Baseman Anthony Rendon (photo by Keith Allison/license)

2018 record: 82-80; 2^nd NL East

Postseason: Did not qualify

Say hello to: Yan Gomes, C; Patrick Corbin, SP; Anibal Sanchez, SP; Brian Dozier, 2B;Trevor Rosenthal, RP

So long to: Bryce Harper, OF; Matt Wieters, C; Tanner Roark, SP

2019 Forecast: The Nationals may have lost Bryce Harper, but they should be just fine. Between their core of Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and Juan Soto; the additions they made in the offseason; and having one of the best right-handed pitchers in the game, the Nats shouldn’t take much of a step back, if at all. Rendon finished 2018 with the 9^th highest fWAR in the majors, which was better than Harper. Soto was second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Young outfielder Victor Robles spent much of last year on the disabled list after a hyperextended elbow, but performed well when called up in September. The Nationals made some notable acquisitions in the offseason, signing Brian Dozier in free agency and trading for catcher Yan Gomes from Cleveland. Dozier had a down season last year, but it was revealed he had played most of the season with a severe bone bruise on his knee. Gomes should be an upgrade over Wieters, particularly defensively. A rotation that already features three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg got a few additions, when the Nats signed both Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez in free agency. Corbin was a stud for the Diamondbacks last season and has one of the filthiest sliders in the game. Sanchez isn’t what he was at his peak, but he’s still decent enough to fill the four or five spot in the rotation.

Look out for: Victor Robles is likely the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Robles would probably have even more hype had it not been for his injury and Soto becoming a star. If he performs as many experts expect him to, the Nationals outfield could very well be better without Harper.

Philadelphia Phillies

Bryce Harper and Bryce Harper’s hair left D.C. to head north to Philadelphia (photo by Arturo Pardavila III/license)

2018 Record: 80-82; 3^rd NL East

Postseason: Did not qualify

Hello to: Bryce Harper, OF; Andrew McCutchen, OF; J.T. Realmuto, C; Jean Segura, SS; Jose Alvarez, RP; David Robertson, RP

So long to: Jorge Alfaro, C; Justin Bour, 1B

2019 Forecast: The Phillies went all-in during the offseason, making perhaps the biggest splash in both quantity and quality of acquisitions, both in trades and free agency. The Phils also made sure to lock down one of their best players by signing pitcher Aaron Nola to a four-year, $45 million extension following his breakout 2018 season. Yes, teams that win the offseason don’t always win in the actual season, but it’s tough to imagine the Phillies not being a much better team this year. They signed Bryce Harper to the largest free agent deal in history, and added J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, and Andrew McCutchen to help their lineup, which had some trouble scoring runs late last season. The Phillies also bolstered their bullpen with the acquisitions of David Robertson and Jose Alvarez. Robertson will likely be used in high-leverage situations and could be used as a part-time closer. Robertson gives manager Gabe Kapler some flexibility in late innings, so the Phillies won’t have to rely as heavily on young reliever Seranthony Dominguez. The Phillies were in contention for most of 2018 and their offseason acquisitions have them poised to make some big gains in the win column in 2019. You’ll know if the Phillies are doing well, because their fans will literally not shut up about it.

Look out for: It’s tough to put anything but Bryce Harper in this spot. His new home stadium is a hitter’s ballpark, so his slugging percentage and homerun totals should see a boost.

NL East Prediction:

I could see the Braves, Phillies, or Nationals winning this division and whichever teams don’t could be vying for the two NL Wild Card spots. My prediction for how things shake out in the NL East:

Nationals
Phillies
Braves
Mets
Marlins

I like the Nationals because I think they have the best combination of pitching and hitting. I like their rotation better than the Phillies’ and I like their lineup more than the Braves’. I think all three teams will be in contention into late August or September, barring any injuries. The Mets could even shock the world and win the division. If the Marlins win it, we’re truly living in the Upside Down.

AL East Preview

Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays prospect Vlad Guerrero Jr. playing for their Triple-A affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons (photo by Tricia Hall/license)

2018 record: 73-89; 4^th AL East

Postseason: Did not qualify

Say hello to: Freddy Galvis, SS; Clayton Richard, SP; Clay Bucholz, SP; Matt Shoemaker, SP; Bud Norris, RP

So long to: Russell Martin, C; Kendrys Morales, DH/INF; Troy Tulowitzki, SS; Aledmys Diaz, INF; Marco Estrada, SP; Tyler Clippard, RP

2019 forecast: The Blue Jays still have a long way to go to get back to being as good as the teams that went to the ALCS in back-to-back years in 2015 and 2016. This season will probably be another losing season as they attempt to rebuild. The Blue Jays have the best prospect in baseball, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. in Triple-A right now. The 19-year-old phenom will likely be called up to the big league club in June. He’s currently battling a strained oblique, though the Jays weren’t planning on calling him up to start the season anyway because he’s “not ready” for the big leagues yet (also known as “excuse for service time manipulation”). The Blue Jays are certainly hoping starting pitcher Aaron Sanchez has put the finger issues that sidelined him the past two seasons behind him. They need more stability in their rotation behind Marcus Stroman, particularly following their trade of J.A. Happ last year.

Look out for: The most exciting thing about the Blue Jays this year is the guy who will start his season 100 miles south of Rogers Centre. Vlad Jr. has dominated at every level of the minors and will single-handedly make the Jays a more entertaining team.

Baltimore Orioles

Chris Davis and Mike Trout: the worst and best baseball has to offer
(photo by Keith Allison/license)

2018 record: 47-115; 5^th AL East

Postseason: Did not qualify

Say hello to: Richie Martin, SS; Jesus Sucre, C; Nate Karns, RP

So long to: Adam Jones, CF; Tim Beckham, INF; Caleb Joseph, C

2019 forecast: Well, it can’t be worse than 2018…can it? The 2019 O’s will likely not fare much better than last year’s team did. They are in full-on rebuild mode and have a low-ranked farm system. They simply won’t be much fun to watch this year. Chris Davis will certainly be looking to prove something after one of the worst seasons ever by a major league player. Davis struck out nearly 37% of the time and had an OPS of .539. Watching Davis attempt to hit above the Mendoza line could be entertaining? It’s tough to imagine this team finishing anywhere but last in an AL East that had three 90-game winners last season.

Look out for: Closer Mychal Givens just might be the most exciting part of this year’s Orioles. While his numbers went down as a whole last year, he didn’t allow much hard contact and kept opponents scoreless in 18 of his last 21 appearances.

Tampa Bay Rays

Reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell (photo by Keith Allison/license)

2018 record: 90-72; 3^rd AL East

Postseason: Did not qualify

Say hello to: Charlie “Electric Stuff” Morton, SP; Avisaíl Garcia, OF; Yandy Díaz, INF; Mike Zunino, C

So long to: Sergio Romo, RP; Carlos Gomez, CF

2019 forecast: The Rays had a surprisingly good 2018, which few people saw coming. They traded pitcher Chris Archer to the Pirates for pitcher Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Austin Meadows, and pitching prospect Shane Baz. Meadows will start in right field to start the year and Glasnow, who never found his groove in Pittsburgh, looks to be one of the Rays’ starters in 2019. Tampa began using openers last season, which worked to their benefit and is a great example of outside-the-box thinking that small-market, low-payroll teams must employ to stay competitive. And stay competitive they did, winning 90 games in a division that boasted the two best teams in baseball last year. They were buoyed by pitcher Blake Snell’s excellent season, which landed him the AL Cy Young Award. Unfortunately for the Rays, their 90 wins weren’t enough as the A’s won 97 and landed the second Wild Card spot. The Rays won’t have an easy go of it this year either, as the Red Sox and Yankees are still two of the best teams in baseball. The Rays will be interesting to watch, as they continue to experiment with openers, something that could have ramifications across the league.

Look out for: Austin Meadows will begin his first full season in the majors. With consistent playing time, he could develop into a solid player and become a centerpiece for the Rays over the next several years.

Boston Red Sox

Reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts (photo by Arturo Padavilla III/license)

2018 record: 108-54; 1^st AL East

Postseason: Won World Series over Los Angeles Dodgers, 4-1

Say hello to: Colten Brewer, RP

So long to: Craig Kimbrel, RP; Drew Pomeranz, SP; Ian Kinsler, 2B; Joe Kelly, RP

2019 forecast: The reigning World Series champs somehow aren’t favorites to win the 2019 World Series, but they’re still stacked, losing very few players from last season. The most noticeable change is at the closer position, with Craig Kimbrel leaving in free agency and Matt Barnes slated to take over the position this year. They managed to re-sign a couple of their own free agents, including World Series MVP Steve Pearce and starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi. The starting outfield from last season will return, featuring AL MVP Mookie Betts, Andrew Benitendi, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. J.D. Martinez is back at DH, and Xander Bogaerts returns at shortstop. Betts led all major leaguers in fWAR last season, and Martinez and Bogaerts both finished in the top 30; Benitendi missed the top 30 by 0.1. Veteran second baseman Dustin Pedroia will start the year on the injured list, but could return before the end of April. The Red Sox recently announced a six-year extension for their ace, Chris Sale. While they may not top last year’s record, they’ll still be one of the top teams in the league. With the best leftie in the game leading their rotation, and most of the same cast returning from last year’s championship team, the Red Sox will be one of the best teams in baseball yet again.

Look out for: Mookie Betts is the most fun player to watch in all of baseball. Mike Trout may be better overall (though he wasn’t last year), but Mookie just looks like he’s having a blast out there. It’ll be hard for him to top his excellent MVP season, but watching him try promises to be entertaining.

New York Yankees

Yankee slugger Giancarlo Stanton (photo by Keith Allison/license)

2018 record: 100-62, 2^nd AL East

Postseason: Lost ALDS to Boston Red Sox, 3-1

Say hello to: Troy Tulowitzki, SS; James Paxton, SP; Adam Ottavino, RP

So long to: David Robertson, RP; Andrew McCutchen, CF; Neil Walker, 2B; Sonny Gray, SP

2019 Forecast: The Yankees (along with the Astros) have the best odds to win the 2019 World Series. Winners of 100 games in 2018, it’s easy to see the Yankees again being one of the best teams in baseball. They have perhaps the best bullpen in the game, featuring closer Aroldis Chapman. They traded for Zack Britton last season, and signed him to a contract during the offseason. Adam Ottavino also joined the Yanks’ pen. The signing didn’t get much hype, but Ottavino was excellent with the Rockies last year, with a 12.98 K/9 rate. James Paxton came to the Bronx via a trade with the Mariners and he’ll likely fill the 2 or 3 spot in the rotation. The busy offseason also saw the Yankees re-sign some of their own free agents, including pitchers CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ, as well as veteran outfielder Brett Gardner. Injuries could be a problem early on, as the Yankees have several key players who won’t see the field on Opening Day. Their ace, Luis Severino, is working back from rotator cuff inflammation in his right shoulder and likely won’t make a major league start until May. Centerfielder Aaron Hicks is experiencing lower back tightness, but is expected to play in early April. Shortstop Didi Gregorius is still rehabbing after Tommy John surgery in October and won’t see the field until the summer months. However, the Yankees are a deep team, so they should still be in it as they await the return of the above players. The main thing the Yankees should be concerned with is not allowing the Red Sox to build an insurmountable lead in the division, as they did last year.

Look out for: It’s hard to say a 38-homerun season is a down year, but considering Giancarlo Stanton had 59 in his 2017 MVP season with the Marlins, there’s no doubt some Yankees fans were disappointed with Stanton’s freshman year in the Bronx. Stanton’s slugging percentage fell over 120 points from 2017 to 2018 (to be fair, he still slugged .509 last season). We’ll see how he fares in his second season at Yankee Stadium.

AL East Prediction:

The Red Sox and Yankees were two of the best teams last year, and will be two of the best teams this season. The Rays could be a sneaky team, and if injuries derail the Yankees early, the Rays could find themselves in second place and/or competing for a Wild Card spot. My prediction for the AL East:

Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Blue Jays
Orioles

The Red Sox are just too good to pick against. Almost all of their key players are returning this season. Repeating as World Series champions is always difficult, but repeating as AL East champs is a reasonable expectation for a team that won 108 games a year ago.

Bryce Harper Signs with the Phillies

On Thursday afternoon, Bryce Harper finally signed with a team; the right fielder and his glorious hair will be headed to Philadelphia. Harper’s deal is for 13-years and $330 million. It’s the largest free agent signing and largest contract in sports history, surpassing Manny Machado’s 10-year, $300 million contract with the Padres, which Machado signed just last week.

That Harper got the largest contract in history was a surprise to no one; Harper’s free agency had been speculated about for years and his agent, Scott Boras, is known for getting his clients the money they want. Plus Harper is just 26 years old and may just be entering his prime.

What was surprising was the rest of the contract—13 years, no opt-outs, no deferred money, and a full no-trade clause. The contract will keep Harper in Philly through his age 38 season in 2031.

There are many questions the Harper signing brought up.

Is he worth it?

Harper is still young—he just turned 26 in October. He already has a number of career accomplishments. He was named National League Rookie of the Year in 2012, he is the youngest position player to play in an All-Star Game, and he was unanimously named NL MVP in 2015 with a triple slash line of .330/.460/.649., a wRC+ of 197 (league average is 100), and an fWAR of 9.3. Given those accomplishments, it’s hard to imagine a team that wouldn’t want Harper batting third or fourth in its lineup.

However, Harper has been somewhat injury-prone. He missed time with an injured hip in 2013, had surgery on his left knee after the 2013 season, had surgery on a torn ligament in his left thumb in 2014, and has suffered injuries to his shoulder, neck, and re-injured his left knee. While this isn’t his fault, the fact is that injuries have found Harper.

Harper has also been unable to replicate the success of his MVP year. There aren’t many players who can, but unfortunately for Harper, he’s playing at the same time as Mike Trout. The 9.3 fWAR Harper sported in 2015, the best of his career? Trout has five seasons of having an fWAR of 9.3 or better. It may be unfair to compare Harper to Trout, but they will always be compared to one another.

Harper is still a force to be reckoned with at the plate, but his defense in 2018 was downright awful. Fangraphs’ UZR metric had him at -7.4—the average is zero, so Harper was way below average. Baseball Reference uses Defensive Runs Saved to measure defense, and Harper was -26—meaning he allowed 26 runs to score defensively, which was second worst among all outfielders. Regardless of the metric used, it’s clear that Harper has gotten worse defensively.

So is Harper worth it? Yes and no. $330 million still seems like a good deal for Philadelphia to have a 26-year-old former MVP with the raw talent and potential that Harper has. Citizens Bank Park also suits a hitter like Harper—it’s not unrealistic to think he could hit 30-40 homeruns in a smaller park like Citizens Bank. His numbers in 50 games in Citizens Bank Park: .258/.365/.564 with 14 home runs and is the all-time leader in slugging percentage—.564—in the park’s history.

Harper probably won’t be worth the money on the back end of his deal; it’s hard to imagine any player in their late 30s being worth $25.38 million a year. But it’s clear the Phillies are going for it, and if they win a World Series at any time over the next 13 years, it will certainly be worth any money they’ll spend when Harper is a light-hitting 35-year-old.

Are the Phillies automatically favorites to win the NL East with the addition of Harper?

With the addition of Harper alone, no. With the addition of Harper, Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, and Andrew McCutchen—probably.

Harper is still young and may not have peaked yet. Segura’s combined fWAR over the last three seasons is 11.9; Harper’s is a combined 11.3. Realmuto just might be the best catcher in the game. Cutch isn’t the same player as he was in 2013 or 2015, but he had a nice stretch run with the Yankees last season and is a decent addition for the Phillies.

The Phillies finished last season 80-82, good enough for third place in the NL East. They made a huge jump between 2017 and 2018, and with the addition of the aforementioned players in the offseason, they’ll be a formidable opponent in 2019. Winning the offseason doesn’t always translate to success on the field, but the Phillies have names and a manager that has embraced analytics, which seems like the best of both worlds. Until proven wrong, it’s hard to pick against the Phillies.

What does this mean Mike Trout, who will hit free agency after the 2020 season?

With Harper getting $330 million over 13 years, many assume Trout will sign a deal upwards of $500 million. As stated above, Trout has the better stats and is the better player. Trout’s WAR has him in legendary company. He’s better defensively.

It’s still likely that Trout will not receive a $500 million deal. He’ll be 29 when he hits free agency, so a 13-year deal probably won’t happen for him. Teams are less and less willing to dole out huge sums of money in free agency. It’s no secret that hitters decline after age 30. No one—not even Mike Trout, who at times seems superhuman—can stop time. Trout will probably sign a contract with the highest average annual value (AAV)–$35-$38 million/year over 10 years seems like a reasonable and realistic contract for Trout. But $500 million is a stretch. Remember, people thought Harper was likely to receive a $500 million deal, too.

Bottom Line:

The Harper era has officially begun in Philadelphia and it won’t be over for a very long time—many of the guys Harper will be playing with at the end of his contract are currently in middle school.